Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.65x

What the market pays for Strategy against its bitcoin

The bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet is worth 66.4 billion dollars at the latest close. The market prices the entire firm, every share counted, at 43.4 billion dollars. Divide one by the other and you get the mNAV: 0.65x.

Below 1 means the stock trades for less than the bitcoin it owns. Put bluntly, the market is pricing every dollar of bitcoin on that balance sheet at 0.65 dollars. That discount is not free money: it exists because a company is not a wallet, and the sections below are the reasons the market gives for it.

Microstrategy bitcoin holdings, and what they cost

One layer deeper. 840,447 bitcoin, around 4.00% of every coin that will ever exist. No other listed company is close, and the figure comes from official filings rather than from an estimate.

They paid an average of $76,029 per coin. With Bitcoin at $79,024, that position sits +3.9% from its cost. In profit, in plain words: the company is currently up on the bitcoin it bought. That number moves every day and it is the cleanest way to read the position without a story attached.

Strategy debt maturity, in plain numbers

Zoom out for a second. Long-term debt stands at 6.7 billion dollars, which is 10 dollars owed for every 100 dollars of bitcoin held. Figures as of 2026-06-30, from the filings, so they move once a quarter rather than every day.

The first large maturity is 4.5 billion dollars. Debt is what separates this from simply owning coins: a wallet never has to refinance. It is also why the discount or premium on the mNAV is never just arithmetic.

The models that are not in here

Worth being explicit, because the most searched Bitcoin models are not in this engine. There is no stock to flow here and no rainbow chart. Both are readable, both are popular, and both have spent the last cycle being argued about precisely because they were published as certainties and then had to be quietly re-drawn.

The power law is in, as one of the four generators, and it earns its place by being reweighted against real history every week rather than by looking convincing on a chart. Leaving the famous models out is not a dig at them. It is the same standard applied here: if a component cannot be scored against what actually happened, it does not get to move the band.

The sources, and one honest caveat

Set the price aside for a moment. Holdings, cost, debt and share count come from Strategy's own filings. Prices come from the daily closes of both assets. Nothing here is an estimate and nothing is rounded to make a point.

One caveat worth stating: the stock market closes and Bitcoin does not. These figures use the close of August 26, 2026, so the stock side is a day behind the coin side by construction. On a quiet week that changes nothing; on a violent one it is worth remembering before comparing the two.

Hits and misses, published the same size

6 of the 8 projected weekly ranges published so far resolved inside the band. Every one of them was frozen before its week, and every result went up afterwards, including the ones that went wrong.

There is a trap in that number worth naming. A band that contains the close every single time is not a good model, it is a wide one. The published band is the middle half of the distribution, so a properly calibrated engine should land inside about half the time. A hit rate far above that means the bands are wider than they should be, which is a miscalibration too, just the flattering kind.

Which of the two actually paid better

Context first, verdict after. Over the last twelve months Bitcoin did -28.2% and MSTR did -64.1%. The coin won, by 35.9 points.

This is the question the whole panel exists to answer, and it deserves a blunt reading: holding bitcoin through a listed company adds leverage in both directions. When it works it beats the coin; when it does not, it loses by more. One year is one sample, and the honest way to use it is as one data point among several horizons, not as a verdict.

MSTR beta: how much it moves per point of Bitcoin

Now the part most readers skip. Over the last 90 trading days the beta is 1.65x. For every point Bitcoin moves, MSTR has moved 1.65 points on average. Daily volatility says the same thing from another angle: 2.2% for Bitcoin against 4.3% for the stock, a ratio of 1.93x.

Both figures are computed only on days when both actually traded. Bitcoin trades on weekends and MSTR does not, and comparing the two without lining up the calendar invents correlation that is not there.

The correlation, near and far

The 30-day correlation reads 0.76, against 0.74 over five years. Read them together rather than one at a time: the long number says these two have shared a direction for years, and the short one says how tightly they are holding hands right now.

When the short reading drops well below the long one, something other than Bitcoin is driving the stock. It can be a filing, a financing, or the wider stock market having a bad week. That gap is the part worth watching.

The forecast is for Bitcoin, not for MSTR

One layer deeper. The BitPulse engine forecasts Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin. Everything on this page is a statistical comparison between two assets: no target price for the stock, no view on where it goes next, and no intention of adding one.

A company carries risks a currency does not. Debt that has to be refinanced, management decisions, regulation, and a share count that can change. None of this is investment advice, and a discount on the mNAV is a fact about today, not a promise about tomorrow.