Bitcoin this week, day by day: +1.5%

The week, from Monday to tonight

Bitcoin opened the week at $77,734 and goes into Friday night at $78,936: up 1.5% on the week. The best day was Monday at +1.6%, the worst was Tuesday at -0.6%. The full day-by-day sits in the data box above.

That is the recap's whole job: what actually happened, priced and dated, before the weekend rewrites it into a story. Whatever narrative the timeline settles on, these closes are the part nobody gets to edit.

How close the projection got

The committed weekly range said $79,614 to $83,343, frozen before the week started. Tonight's price of $78,936 sits outside it, 0.9% beyond the bottom edge.

The range does not settle tonight: it resolves at its own expiry, and the verdict gets published either way, like the 7 of 9 weekly ranges before it. This is the midweek-to-Friday photo, not the final whistle.

The precedents, for what they are worth

Context first, verdict after. Scanning roughly nine years of daily closes for weeks with a similar move and a similar range turns up 55 precedents. In the seven days that followed them, the median move was +0.3%, and 28 of the 55 closed higher.

Read that as a base rate, not a forecast. 55 weeks is a small sample, no two market regimes rhyme exactly, and the model behind the published ranges does not use this table. It is context for the weekend take, nothing more.

Why this is not a Bitcoin price prediction

Now the part most readers skip. Search for a Bitcoin price prediction and you will find a single number with a date attached and no way to check it later. This is the other thing. The band from $79,614 to $83,343 says where the model thinks price is more likely than not to land, it says so before the fact, and it gets marked against the real close afterwards.

The distinction is the same one a weather forecast makes. Nobody promises rain at four in the afternoon; they give you a probability and you decide what to do with the umbrella. A Bitcoin price target promises certainty that nobody has. A forecast hands you the odds and keeps the receipt.

Which chapter this week was part of

Read through the structure engine behind the market moment alerts, this week belongs to an uptrend on both degrees: the weekly degree points up and the daily one up. That is the frame the week's candles were painted inside.

The Tuesday piece digs into that structure in detail. The recap only needs the label: a week means something different inside an uptrend than inside a correction, and pretending weeks float free of context is how recaps mislead.

The track record this range joins

One layer deeper. 7 of the 9 projected weekly ranges published so far resolved inside the band. Every one of them was frozen before its week, and every result went up afterwards, including the ones that went wrong.

There is a trap in that number worth naming. A band that contains the close every single time is not a good model, it is a wide one. The published band is the middle half of the distribution, so a properly calibrated engine should land inside about half the time. A hit rate far above that means the bands are wider than they should be, which is a miscalibration too, just the flattering kind.

Where this goes from here

Zoom out for a second. The next projected range is drawn over the live Bitcoin chart in the app, alongside the dated zones for the longer horizons, and it is recalculated on the server every day so that every visitor sees the same numbers. Nothing here is computed in your browser and nothing is personalised.

None of this is investment advice. It is one statistical model keeping its numbers where anybody can check them, including the weeks it gets wrong.