Strategy (MSTR) holds 845,050 BTC and trades at 71% of them
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Strategy (MSTR) holds 845,050 bitcoin, about 4.02% of every coin that will ever exist. At Wednesday's close the market valued all of Strategy at 0.71 times that pile: less than the bitcoin it owns. Here is what the numbers say, updated every Thursday.
The mNAV, and what it actually says
The bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet is worth 66.2 billion dollars at the latest close. The market prices the entire firm, every share counted, at 46.8 billion dollars. Divide one by the other and you get the mNAV: 0.71x.
Below 1 means the stock trades for less than the bitcoin it owns. Put bluntly, the market is pricing every dollar of bitcoin on that balance sheet at 0.71 dollars. That discount is not free money: it exists because a company is not a wallet, and the sections below are the reasons the market gives for it.
Last week, same series: Strategy (MSTR) holds 840,447 BTC and trades at 67% of them. That range is already settled and published, hit or miss.
The range comes out of a four-model engine, reweighted every week against the real record. How it is calculated, step by step.
The pile, and the price they paid for it
845,050 bitcoin, around 4.02% of every coin that will ever exist. No other listed company is close, and the figure comes from official filings rather than from an estimate.
They paid an average of $76,052 per coin. With Bitcoin at $78,306, that position sits +3.0% from its cost. In profit, in plain words: the company is currently up on the bitcoin it bought. That number moves every day and it is the cleanest way to read the position without a story attached.
MSTR vs Bitcoin over the last year
One layer deeper. Over the last twelve months Bitcoin did -30.1% and MSTR did -59.8%. The coin won, by 29.7 points.
This is the question the whole panel exists to answer, and it deserves a blunt reading: holding bitcoin through a listed company adds leverage in both directions. When it works it beats the coin; when it does not, it loses by more. One year is one sample, and the honest way to use it is as one data point among several horizons, not as a verdict.
MSTR beta: how much it moves per point of Bitcoin
Zoom out for a second. Over the last 90 trading days the beta is 1.78x. For every point Bitcoin moves, MSTR has moved 1.78 points on average. Daily volatility says the same thing from another angle: 2.4% for Bitcoin against 5.5% for the stock, a ratio of 2.26x.
Both figures are computed only on days when both actually traded. Bitcoin trades on weekends and MSTR does not, and comparing the two without lining up the calendar invents correlation that is not there.
Where Bitcoin sits in its four year cycle
Counting days since the April 2024 halving puts this piece on day 874. The next halving is estimated by block height for February 27, 2028, a date that drifts with the real cadence of mined blocks rather than sitting on a calendar.
That count is the honest way to compare cycles, because what matters is not the date but how far in we are. It is also worth saying plainly that four halvings means four cases. Enough to see a shape, nowhere near enough to prove one, and whether the four year cycle still holds is an argument that is very much open. The cycle is context here, never the reason for a weekly number.
Where the line is
Set the price aside for a moment. The BitPulse engine forecasts Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin. Everything on this page is a statistical comparison between two assets: no target price for the stock, no view on where it goes next, and no intention of adding one.
A company carries risks a currency does not. Debt that has to be refinanced, management decisions, regulation, and a share count that can change. None of this is investment advice, and a discount on the mNAV is a fact about today, not a promise about tomorrow.
What is on the calendar
- US producer prices
- US inflation (CPI)
The projection does NOT use this data. We measured it: a macro release moves Bitcoin by one or two points over ten days, while Bitcoin’s own swing over that same window is close to thirteen. It drowns, so adding it would decorate the model rather than improve it. This is here as context.
Frequently asked questions
What is MSTR mNAV and why does it matter?
It is what the whole company is worth divided by what its bitcoin is worth. Today it reads 0.71x: the stock trades BELOW its reserves, so the market pays less than a dollar for every dollar of bitcoin on its balance sheet. It is the number that decides whether buying the stock is cheaper or dearer than buying the coin.
How is the Bitcoin range calculated?
With a combined engine of four models: a power law over a decade of price history, a Monte Carlo simulation driven by GARCH volatility, an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck residual model and an implied density read from the Deribit options surface. They are pooled into one distribution and reweighted every week against real history, with around fourteen live data sources feeding a bias layer on top. The published band is its middle half, frozen before the period starts so it cannot be adjusted after the fact.
Where can I see the full track record?
On the results page, with every checked projection, hits and misses alike. This piece's range, $NaN to $NaN, ends up there too.
Published before the fact
Bitcoin dominance: – · Altseason: –
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