Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.76x

What the market pays for Strategy against its bitcoin

The bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet is worth 70.5 billion dollars at the latest close. The market prices the entire firm, every share counted, at 53.6 billion dollars. Divide one by the other and you get the mNAV: 0.76x.

Below 1 means the stock trades for less than the bitcoin it owns. Put bluntly, the market is pricing every dollar of bitcoin on that balance sheet at 0.76 dollars. That discount is not free money: it exists because a company is not a wallet, and the sections below are the reasons the market gives for it.

Last week, same series: Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.77x. That range is already settled and published, hit or miss.

The range comes out of a four-model engine, reweighted every week against the real record. How it is calculated, step by step.

The pile, and the price they paid for it

One layer deeper. 847,999 bitcoin, around 4.04% of every coin that will ever exist. No other listed company is close, and the figure comes from official filings rather than from an estimate.

They paid an average of $76,079 per coin. With Bitcoin at $83,169, that position sits +9.3% from its cost. In profit, in plain words: the company is currently up on the bitcoin it bought. That number moves every day and it is the cleanest way to read the position without a story attached.

MSTR price vs Bitcoin price: still the same trade?

Zoom out for a second. Over the last 90 trading days the beta is 1.80x. For every point Bitcoin moves, MSTR has moved 1.80 points on average. Daily volatility says the same thing from another angle: 2.3% for Bitcoin against 5.3% for the stock, a ratio of 2.32x.

Both figures are computed only on days when both actually traded. Bitcoin trades on weekends and MSTR does not, and comparing the two without lining up the calendar invents correlation that is not there.

Day 909 of the Bitcoin halving cycle

Counting days since the April 2024 halving puts this piece on day 909. The next halving is estimated by block height for March 21, 2028, a date that drifts with the real cadence of mined blocks rather than sitting on a calendar.

That count is the honest way to compare cycles, because what matters is not the date but how far in we are. It is also worth saying plainly that four halvings means four cases. Enough to see a shape, nowhere near enough to prove one, and whether the four year cycle still holds is an argument that is very much open. The cycle is context here, never the reason for a weekly number.

The sources, and one honest caveat

Set the price aside for a moment. Holdings, cost, debt and share count come from Strategy's own filings. Prices come from the daily closes of both assets. Nothing here is an estimate and nothing is rounded to make a point.

One caveat worth stating: the stock market closes and Bitcoin does not. These figures use the close of October 13, 2026, so the stock side is a day behind the coin side by construction. On a quiet week that changes nothing; on a violent one it is worth remembering before comparing the two.

The forecast is for Bitcoin, not for MSTR

The BitPulse engine forecasts Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin. Everything on this page is a statistical comparison between two assets: no target price for the stock, no view on where it goes next, and no intention of adding one.

A company carries risks a currency does not. Debt that has to be refinanced, management decisions, regulation, and a share count that can change. None of this is investment advice, and a discount on the mNAV is a fact about today, not a promise about tomorrow.