Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.76x

What the market pays for Strategy against its bitcoin

The bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet is worth 71.3 billion dollars at the latest close. The market prices the entire firm, every share counted, at 54.1 billion dollars. Divide one by the other and you get the mNAV: 0.76x.

Below 1 means the stock trades for less than the bitcoin it owns. Put bluntly, the market is pricing every dollar of bitcoin on that balance sheet at 0.76 dollars. That discount is not free money: it exists because a company is not a wallet, and the sections below are the reasons the market gives for it.

Last week, same series: Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.76x. That range is already settled and published, hit or miss.

The range comes out of a four-model engine, reweighted every week against the real record. How it is calculated, step by step.

The largest bitcoin treasury, and what it cost to build

848,250 bitcoin, around 4.04% of every coin that will ever exist. No other listed company is close, and the figure comes from official filings rather than from an estimate.

They paid an average of $76,082 per coin. With Bitcoin at $84,093, that position sits +10.5% from its cost. In profit, in plain words: the company is currently up on the bitcoin it bought. That number moves every day and it is the cleanest way to read the position without a story attached.

Strategy debt maturity, in plain numbers

Context first, verdict after. Long-term debt stands at 6.7 billion dollars, which is 9 dollars owed for every 100 dollars of bitcoin held. Figures as of 2026-06-30, from the filings, so they move once a quarter rather than every day.

The first large maturity is 4.5 billion dollars. Debt is what separates this from simply owning coins: a wallet never has to refinance. It is also why the discount or premium on the mNAV is never just arithmetic.

Hits and misses, published the same size

Now the part most readers skip. 7 of the 12 projected weekly ranges published so far resolved inside the band. Every one of them was frozen before its week, and every result went up afterwards, including the ones that went wrong.

There is a trap in that number worth naming. A band that contains the close every single time is not a good model, it is a wide one. The published band is the middle half of the distribution, so a properly calibrated engine should land inside about half the time. A hit rate far above that means the bands are wider than they should be, which is a miscalibration too, just the flattering kind.

The correlation, near and far

The 30-day correlation reads 0.83, against 0.74 over five years. Read them together rather than one at a time: the long number says these two have shared a direction for years, and the short one says how tightly they are holding hands right now.

When the short reading drops well below the long one, something other than Bitcoin is driving the stock. It can be a filing, a financing, or the wider stock market having a bad week. That gap is the part worth watching.

The forecast is for Bitcoin, not for MSTR

One layer deeper. The BitPulse engine forecasts Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin. Everything on this page is a statistical comparison between two assets: no target price for the stock, no view on where it goes next, and no intention of adding one.

A company carries risks a currency does not. Debt that has to be refinanced, management decisions, regulation, and a share count that can change. None of this is investment advice, and a discount on the mNAV is a fact about today, not a promise about tomorrow.