Bitcoin this week, day by day: +4.2%

The week, from Monday to tonight

Bitcoin opened the week at $81,178 and goes into Friday night at $84,597: up 4.2% on the week. The best day was Monday at +6.7%, the worst was Wednesday at -2.1%. The full day-by-day sits in the data box above.

That is the recap's whole job: what actually happened, priced and dated, before the weekend rewrites it into a story. Whatever narrative the timeline settles on, these closes are the part nobody gets to edit.

Last week, same series: Bitcoin this week, day by day: -0.1%. That range is already settled and published, hit or miss.

The range comes out of a four-model engine, reweighted every week against the real record. How it is calculated, step by step.

How close the projection got

One layer deeper. The committed weekly range said $77,595 to $82,830, frozen before the week started. Tonight's price of $84,597 sits outside it, 2.1% beyond the top edge.

The range does not settle tonight: it resolves at its own expiry, and the verdict gets published either way, like the 9 of 12 weekly ranges before it. This is the midweek-to-Friday photo, not the final whistle.

The precedents, for what they are worth

Zoom out for a second. Scanning roughly nine years of daily closes for weeks with a similar move and a similar range turns up 36 precedents. In the seven days that followed them, the median move was +0.6%, and 20 of the 36 closed higher.

Read that as a base rate, not a forecast. 36 weeks is a small sample, no two market regimes rhyme exactly, and the model behind the published ranges does not use this table. It is context for the weekend take, nothing more.

The market moment this week belongs to

Read through the structure engine behind the market moment alerts, this week belongs to choppy and directionless: the weekly degree points up and the daily one up. That is the frame the week's candles were painted inside.

The Tuesday piece digs into that structure in detail. The recap only needs the label: a week means something different inside an uptrend than inside a correction, and pretending weeks float free of context is how recaps mislead.

What the public log says so far

Set the price aside for a moment. 9 of the 12 projected weekly ranges published so far resolved inside the band. Every one of them was frozen before its week, and every result went up afterwards, including the ones that went wrong.

There is a trap in that number worth naming. A band that contains the close every single time is not a good model, it is a wide one. The published band is the middle half of the distribution, so a properly calibrated engine should land inside about half the time. A hit rate far above that means the bands are wider than they should be, which is a miscalibration too, just the flattering kind.

What happens next

The next projected range is drawn over the live Bitcoin chart in the app, alongside the dated zones for the longer horizons, and it is recalculated on the server every day so that every visitor sees the same numbers. Nothing here is computed in your browser and nothing is personalised.

None of this is investment advice. It is one statistical model keeping its numbers where anybody can check them, including the weeks it gets wrong.