Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.80x

What the market pays for Strategy against its bitcoin

The bitcoin on Strategy's balance sheet is worth 71.3 billion dollars at the latest close. The market prices the entire firm, every share counted, at 57.2 billion dollars. Divide one by the other and you get the mNAV: 0.80x.

Below 1 means the stock trades for less than the bitcoin it owns. Put bluntly, the market is pricing every dollar of bitcoin on that balance sheet at 0.80 dollars. That discount is not free money: it exists because a company is not a wallet, and the sections below are the reasons the market gives for it.

Last week, same series: Is MSTR a cheap way to own bitcoin? mNAV says 0.69x. That range is already settled and published, hit or miss.

The range comes out of a four-model engine, reweighted every week against the real record. How it is calculated, step by step.

Microstrategy bitcoin holdings, and what they cost

845,050 bitcoin, around 4.02% of every coin that will ever exist. No other listed company is close, and the figure comes from official filings rather than from an estimate.

They paid an average of $76,052 per coin. With Bitcoin at $84,398, that position sits +11.0% from its cost. In profit, in plain words: the company is currently up on the bitcoin it bought. That number moves every day and it is the cleanest way to read the position without a story attached.

The correlation, near and far

Context first, verdict after. The 30-day correlation reads 0.83, against 0.74 over five years. Read them together rather than one at a time: the long number says these two have shared a direction for years, and the short one says how tightly they are holding hands right now.

When the short reading drops well below the long one, something other than Bitcoin is driving the stock. It can be a filing, a financing, or the wider stock market having a bad week. That gap is the part worth watching.

MSTR vs Bitcoin over the last year

Now the part most readers skip. Over the last twelve months Bitcoin did -25.1% and MSTR did -51.7%. The coin won, by 26.6 points.

This is the question the whole panel exists to answer, and it deserves a blunt reading: holding bitcoin through a listed company adds leverage in both directions. When it works it beats the coin; when it does not, it loses by more. One year is one sample, and the honest way to use it is as one data point among several horizons, not as a verdict.

MSTR beta: how much it moves per point of Bitcoin

Over the last 90 trading days the beta is 1.76x. For every point Bitcoin moves, MSTR has moved 1.76 points on average. Daily volatility says the same thing from another angle: 2.9% for Bitcoin against 6.3% for the stock, a ratio of 2.17x.

Both figures are computed only on days when both actually traded. Bitcoin trades on weekends and MSTR does not, and comparing the two without lining up the calendar invents correlation that is not there.

The forecast is for Bitcoin, not for MSTR

One layer deeper. The BitPulse engine forecasts Bitcoin, and only Bitcoin. Everything on this page is a statistical comparison between two assets: no target price for the stock, no view on where it goes next, and no intention of adding one.

A company carries risks a currency does not. Debt that has to be refinanced, management decisions, regulation, and a share count that can change. None of this is investment advice, and a discount on the mNAV is a fact about today, not a promise about tomorrow.